In the last article we to tried see the correlation between vaccination % and cases in various states of India. Now we are trying to study the same in few countries i.e how much they have vaccinated and whether there is an impact?

Below is the graph showing certain coutries , with Vaccination  % of population (atleast single dose) + Cases per 100 population - this we consider to give a picture on how much of the population might have got some immune response. Yes, ofcourse not all people who had got infected six months ago would have same immuno response now and the same way not all people who got vaccinated will have immuno response. However we felt that this data will give a fair measure of people with some action taken. Another parameter is the number of cases in last 7 days per 50,000 population. We have shown 50k as it will make the graph more comparable, 

What we learnt from the graph 

1. South American countries like Chile, Brazil , Argentina are worst affected. Argentina is the worst affected.
   • Peculiar case is of Chile, inspite of being the top most vaccinated countires , it is having high surge of cases - A BBC article summarizes  the reasons -  Chile sees Covid surge despite vaccination success . Some excerpts - More than 93% of the doses administered in Chile so far have been CoronaVac, produced by the Beijing-based biopharmaceutical company Sinovac. Data on the efficacy of the CoronaVac vaccine is varied. Brazilian trials suggested an efficacy rate of around 50.4% but results from late-stage trials in Indonesia and Turkey suggested a much higher rate - between 65% and 83%.  It suggested CoronaVac was 56.5% effective in protecting people against infection two weeks after they had received their second dose, but the figure was only 3% in the timespan between the first and second doses. This clarifies to some extent that whereas US had used Johnson&Johnson, Moderna, Pfizer/BioNTech and UK used Moderna, Oxford/AstraZeneca, Pfizer/BioNTech, Chile relied mostly on CoronaVac. UAE used all varities including Chinese vaccine Sinopharm and Russian Sputnik V (no idea what was the percentage). This I guess will explain to some extent why cases are high in Chile. Basically Vaccine efficency matters alot.
   • Argentina - Inspite of decent vaccination, cases are high. Argentia used -Oxford/AstraZeneca, Pfizer/BioNTech, Sinovac .
   • Brazil - used Oxford/AstraZeneca, Pfizer/BioNTech, Sinovac. 
   • Colombia used Oxford/AstraZeneca, Pfizer/BioNTech, Sinovac and there vaccination % is less. But cases are relatively less compared to other Latin Colleagues. 
2. Same is the case with Peru. They have used - Oxford/AstraZeneca, Pfizer/BioNTech, Sinopharm/Beijing.
3. Countries UK, USA and UAE , Canada , Germany , Spain and Italy have relatively lesser cases . It is understandable given the higher vaccination+ covid cases . These countries managed to less than 50 cases per 50 k population for seven days. These countires used Johnson&Johnson, Moderna, Oxford/AstraZeneca, Pfizer/BioNTech
4. Interesting are the case of Sweden, Netherlands and to some extent France   - inspite of good vaccination percentage - these countries cases are higher. Inspite of  using vaccines-  Johnson&Johnson, Moderna, Oxford/AstraZeneca, Pfizer/BioNTech- cases are higher in Netherland and Sweden.  For which we are not able to get any possible answer.
5. Another issue is Seychelles, the world’s most vaccinated nation, has had a surge in coronavirus cases despite much of its population being inoculated with China’s Sinopharm vaccine.
6. Nepal and colombia - whch also have comparative spike have used - Sinopharm/Beijing and Sinovac. However these contries vaccination % is very low.
7. Countries like Srilanka, Malaysia , Iran etc. are having less cases and in the same range as Good Vaccinated countries like Germany. May be it is an indication that cases are going to spike soon and also highly infectiuos variants have not yet touched these countries.
8. As per the data, India is in mid-range. Middle number of cases and just around 10% people getting single dose. And it looks , vaccinations Covishield and Covaxin seems to be working for the highly infectious variants. Also introduction of Sputnik V may help.

All Vaccines are not same - 

As data are not pretty clear, it is difficult to say which vaccine is how much efficient. But as per the cases in countries - we guess (it is guess only) Pfizer, Moderna . Astrezeneca , covaxin (India) and Sputnik V  seems to be good. We are not saying others are not good. But country who took these vaccines seems to be able to control the cases. 

Below is a table from - Supplementary information - Modelling of COVID-19 vaccination strategies and herd immunity, in scenarios of limited and full vaccine supply in NSW, Australia.

So if the vaccine is 60% efficient we need to provide vaccine for the whole population.

 DISCLAIMER - As the title says this article is by a layman based on available data on public domain. We are not certifying testifying anything. It is just for information purpose only. We are not certifying the authencity of the data - which we have collected from ready available sources on Public domain.